Prediction Watch: Late summer edition

It’s been awhile since I checked in to see how my 2009 predictions for beer are holding up. Two highly noticeable stories have received attention that fit my predictions nicely.

First, according to the mid-year report issued by the Brewers Associations, “America’s small and independent craft brewers are still growing (see Craft Brewing Statistics) despite many challenges and are continuing to provide jobs to the U.S. economy.”

In essence, income is up, and volume of craft beer sold is up. There are also more breweries in the U.S. now that at any time in the last 100 years. This seems even more optimistic that my #3 prediction (growth and acceptance of beer against wine and spirits).

Second, I saw this story on MSNBC (via AP) yesterday about how the “Big Two” (AB Inbev and MillerCoors) are going to be raising beer prices in the Fall. Prediction #1, rising beer prices—though I have to admit I didn’t expect to see it happening in the macro lager segment.

The article closes with this bit as well: “Prices across all beers, however, have been rising. In 2008 the price of beer, ale, and other malt beverages sold for at-home consumption rose 5.3 percent, according to the government’s Consumer Price Index. As of July, prices on those same items were 4.6 percent higher than they were a year ago.”

I’ve also been keeping an (informal) eye on prediction #5, continued Oregon brewery growth; even I’m surprised by the number of breweries that keep popping up. I’ve been sketching out a list of breweries that have opened roughly since this time last year (or have announced to open) and I’ll post that soon; it’s surprising how many are on it (assuming I have my dates right).

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